FriendFeed: Heh: “Obama’s birthday …

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Heh: “Obama’s birthday is a reminder of why health care is so important. As you probably know, due to a lack of health care coverage, Obama’s mother was turned away from a number of hospitals and was ultimately forced to give birth in a manger.” –Jimmy Kimmel – http://bit.ly/1si6y3

A different Ana?

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Tropical Depression Two has weakened, and may never become Tropical Storm Ana after all. As Dr. Jeff Masters mentioned yesterday, “the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm’s organization.” Alan Sullivan writes this morning that TD2 “has no upper support, and it may weaken to a remnant low later today.”

[UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center’s 11am EDT advisory concurs: “THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…AS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS.”]

Sullivan adds: “Whatever remains of the system should drift west with surface flow; it will not turn northwest as previously modeled, when the storm was supposed to be deeper. It might regenerate eventually, near the Leewards, but that is a long shot.”

The bigger concern — and now apparently the more likely “proto-Ana” — is the strong tropical wave some 250 miles SSE of the Cape Verde Islands. The NHC gives it a “medium” chance, 30-50 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Sullivan notes that it “is now modeled to cross the NE Caribbean as a hurricane — inevitably hitting some islands — then approach the eastern US while a polar trough digs over the interior. Such troughs have brought the cool summer to the eastern states; they may also afford hurricane protection, but this could be a near thing. The Carolinas could get hit.”

Of course, a couple of days ago, TD2 was “modeled” to hit New York City and New England as Hurricane Ana. Trying to predict such things, so early on, is a bit like making college football bowl projections before the season even begins. Time will tell whether Three-to-be ever gets further along the path toward development than Two has. (And whether Florida will really steamroll over its ridiculously easy schedule, or get tripped up by South Carolina or somesuch.)

FWIW, Charles Fenwick did mention yesterday that “[f]orecast models have been very aggressive in developing this storm; far more so than they had been for [what is] now Tropical Depression Two. They are advertising a tropical storm by Saturday with significant development to follow.” But again: we shall see.

Healthcare Stuff

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An interesting tweet just now by Stephen Fry (If you don’t know who Stephen Fry is, I feel sorry for you)

Know this, Republicans.Even the most right wing British politician wouldn’t think of dismantling our health service.

I think this is an interesting point. Why? Because it means the Democrats are going about this entire healthcare thing all wrong. There is really only one way to do this. You do healthcare reform right you pass a sweeping bill you set up the conditions to really set up a solid national healthcare system. No Bull half measures or the weak somewhat crummy bill they have now. It means you have to really legitimately do a healthcare reform. Then you take that bill and you ram it down the throats of the Republicans’ with all the subtly and grace of a panzer tank. And then when it works you beat the Republicans’ around the kidneys with it in every election until it stops sticking because nobody in their right mind would think of getting rid of the program.

But the reality is, if you want to do healthcare reform and you want to do it right you’ve got to have the balls to bet the party on it. FDR bet the party on Social Security and he won. LBJ bet the party on Medicare and Medicaid and he won the double down with Vietnam unfortunately didn’t work out so well. And Obama has to be willing to bet the party on healthcare reform or he should get out of the game.

(For that matter, Bush bet the party on the Iraq war and lost. Reagan bet the party on tax reform and won. Nixon bet the party on China and won, but then he tried to double down with watergate and lost… You get the idea. When it comes to being president you’ve got to be willing to go big or go home. Clinton never really bet the party on anything (other than fellatio perhaps) and I think in the long run will be remembered for a rather boring presidency in which the nation prospered, you know, like Coolidge (a president so boring he doesn’t even rate a built in entry in my computer’s dictionary.))