[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]
College football has finally begun sorting itself out over the last two weeks, with a bunch of upsets and whatnot, so I figured it might be time to post a “BCS pecking order.”
To be clear, this is not a ranking of teams based on how good I think they are, nor where I think they will finish. Rather, I’m asking the question, “To what extent to these teams control their own destinies?” The less that needs to happen externally (i.e., other than the team itself winning out) for the team to reach the title game, the higher they are in the “pecking order.” Anyway, without further ado:
1. Alabama. Obviously. Win and they’re in.
2. Missouri. Do I think the Tigers are the #2 team in America? Not at all. But remember, this is a “pecking order,” not a ranking. If Missouri were to win all of their remaining games, they’d be in the title game as the 13-0 SEC champ. Period. They’re the only team other than Bama that unequivocally controls its destiny.
3. Oregon. I’m assuming, of course, that they beat Wazzu tonight (up 34-24 at halftime; will probably end up winning 69-24 or something). Oregon probably controls its destiny to reach the title game, since Alabama and Missouri obviously can’t both go undefeated. However, there is the small matter of…
4. Florida State. If Alabama (or Missouri) runs the table, and neither the Ducks nor the Seminoles lose, the Oregon vs. FSU debate will consume the rest of college football season. The remainder of the teams on the list don’t even seriously enter the conversation unless at least two of the FSU/Oregon/Alabama-or-Missouri trio suffer a loss.
5. Baylor. The rest of Baylor’s schedule is much harder than what they’ve faced so far. If they survive it, they’d be 12-0 with a good resume and a reputation for incredibly exciting offensive play. Who’d you rather see face Alabama (or Oregon?!? OMG!)? Baylor, or one of the next two teams? Who would voters rather see? I think Baylor gets the nod, leapfrogging the #6 and #7 teams below (who are currently ahead of the Bears in the polls), but I’m by no means certain of that.
6. Miami. Miami would probably need to beat Florida State twice to finish 13-0. If they do that, I think they’d leapfrog Ohio State, who nobody outside of B1G country respects. But I also think they could be leapfrogged, in turn, by 12-0 Baylor. Again, though, I’m not certain. 5-6-7 on this list are very debatable.
7. Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ schedule blows. Nobody wants to see them in the title game. And nothing they can do for the rest of the season will change this. Fair or not, despite their huge name and very long winning streak, I suspect they would get leapfrogged by Baylor or Miami by season’s end, if either of those teams runs the table. But again, I’m not sure; you could reasonably argue for any pecking order among these 5-6-7 teams.
8. Texas Tech. Whereas Baylor gets people excited because of its crazy offense, I don’t think the Red Raiders have the cachet to jump Miami or Ohio State if they somehow finish unbeaten, so I’m putting them here.
9. One-loss SEC champion Alabama. If the Tide lose a regular-season game (say, to LSU, for example), but still win the SEC West (which means by definition that their loss can’t be in the Iron Bowl if Auburn wins out), and prevail in the SEC title game, they would obviously be the top pick among 1-loss teams. However, I don’t think they would leapfrog any of the above unbeatens – although there would certainly be some grumbling from #SECitsaWAR quarters, particularly if we’re talking about a debate between Alabama and Ohio State (or Texas Tech) for the #2 spot.
10. Auburn. Basically the same spot as hypothetical one-loss Alabama. Win out, and the Tigers are ahead of any conceivable one-loss team, but probably not any unbeatens.
