The Living Room Times

With Rossi conceding to Murray in WA-SEN, and BrendanLoy.com projecting that Blumenthal will win by double-digits in CT-SEN (he’s leading by 10.7% with 96% of the precincts reporting), plus another error corrected, things are finally coming into focus in the Living Room Times 2010 Midterm Election Prediction Contest. The bottom line: Kevin Curran is the current leader, but TheSplenda is probably the favorite, with the Alaska Senate race likely to decide the winner.

Here are the latest standings (PDF).

Murray’s win is huge for Curran (a.k.a. kcatnd), who is now a perfect 16-for-16 in his Senate picks and leads the contest with 105 out of a possible 113 points so far. That’s helping Curran make up for underestimating the House GOP gain, which he pegged at 56 seats; the real number is 60 and counting. But Curran’s unblemished Senate prediction record, and probably his chances of winning the contest, now hinge on a seemingly unlikely AK-SEN comeback by Joe Miller, who trails “write-in” by nearly 8 percent.

(Keep in mind, though, not every write-in vote will be for Lisa Murkowski, and some of those intended for Murkowski may not get counted. Before the election, the New York Times reported that “Ms. Murkowski’s supporters are convinced that if the write-in category leads the others by more than 7 or 8 percentage points, that means she will probably win.” That’s exactly where they are now. So: probably.)

If Murkowski ultimately wins, then TheSplenda — currently tied for fourth place with 101 points, and 14-for-16 in the Senate (he got NV and WA wrong), but with a predicted 62-seat GOP House gain working in his favor — would probably win in the contest, though he likely needs the GOP to pick up another House seat or two. Specifically, he would win if Murkowski wins and one of the following things happens:

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