Curran, Splenda tied in Election Contest

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I wrote earlier, of the LRT Election Prediction Contest, that I hadn’t had time to “make the standings chart pretty.” Well, now I’ve made it pretty! You can see for yourself: HTML version, PDF version. It shows every contestant’s pick for every question, colored green if correct, red if incorrect, or gray if the result is unknown as of yet.

NOTE: I encourage contestants to double-check their picks and the calculation of their points, to ensure there are no errors. Crowdsourcing, baby!

Meanwhile, I’ve changed my approach to provisionally calculating the GOP’s House gain while we wait for the final ten seats to be “called.” Instead of using CNN’s projected “estimate” of where the Republicans will probably end up (65), I’m using the current baseline of seats we know they’ve gained (61), and I’ll then add to that number whenever a new seat is called for the GOP. The seats still undecided are: AZ-7, AZ-8, CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, NY-25, TX-27, VA-11, and WA-2. (Of those, the GOP has a slim lead in CA-20, IL-8 and TX-27; the Dems have a slim lead in the others.)

The result of this change is that TheSplenda and Kevin Curran (kcatnd) are now tied for the lead with 101 out of a possible 109 points. John Cary (@KilroyFSU) is next with 100, followed by Matthias Shapiro (@politicalmath) with 99, then Joe Mama (98) and Charles Fenwick (97). I’ve fallen back into a 13th-place tie with 94 points under the new House approach. (I’m also hurt by Bennet’s win in CO-SEN and my correction of an error that results in me losing a point.)

Still undecided: AK-SEN, WA-SEN, CT-GOV, IL-GOV, and of course those 10 House races, plus, which was the closest Senate race (could be CO, WA or AK), and whether Richard Blumenthal won by 6-10% or 10-15% in CT-SEN (he now leads by 10.6%, up from 9.95% earlier, but a number of votes still remain to be counted).