Irene: not a monster, but still a threat

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Sorry for the lack of updates here. I’ve been tracking Irene over at Weather Nerd for Pajamas Media (hey, they pay me!), and on Twitter… while also still, y’know, having a job and a family 🙂 … so I just haven’t had very much time to post here as well.

But anyway, as I’m sure you all know by now, Hurricane Irene has weakened and is expected to hit the northeast as a minimal Category 1 or strong tropical storm, far weaker than feared. Even so, this remains a serious situation, with lots of real risks — primarily storm surge and inland flooding (not so much wind) — and folks need to be prepared for the worst. That means you, New Jersey beachgoers:

P.S. By the way, a bit of navel-gazing… in a sort of pale, Twitter-age echo of my blog’s rise to prominence during Katrina, I’ve seen my Twitter follower count absolutely soar in the last three days, from 1,598 on Wednesday to 2,102 now.

#PREPARE

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Sorry to keep posting these computer model maps, but they’re just so sensational, I can’t help myself. From the 0Z GFS:

FirefoxScreenSnapz073

Over on Weather Nerd, I write:

Holy hell. That map is downright terrifying. (It’s even worse when viewed as an animation. Hat tip: Ryan Maue.) It represents something pretty darn close to the true worst-case scenario, the New York nightmare that experts have feared for years — a Category 2 hurricane, perhaps even a low-end Cat. 3, making landfall in New Jersey, and pushing a severe storm surge into New York harbor, with devastating effects.

I emphasize again that this is just one possible scenario among several, and probably not even the most likely. But such scenarios are always unlikely, right up until the point when they’re about to happen — at which point it’s too late to prepare for them! So everyone needs to prepare as if they’re going to suffer a direct hit, and not just by a minimal hurricane, but by a monster. (And if that preparation proves, in retrospect, to have been unnecessary, breathe a sigh of relief and know that you were right to prepare for the worst, not blithely assume the best.) … This is no mere hypestorm.

For those who remember me from Katrina, I’ll say that the “Get the Hell Out!” moment hasn’t arrived yet. But if we get to tomorrow night and things haven’t changed in the forecast… it may.

Stay tuned to Weather Nerd and my Twitter feed for updates.

Steve Jobs steps down

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Steve Jobs has resigned as CEO of the company he founded 35 years ago, and saved from the brink of collapse when he returned in 1997 with Apple’s aquisition of NeXT. No specific reason was given for the resignation, but Jobs had been on a partial medical leave for a while now. He has has bouts of pancreatic cancer and related health complications from it.

Jobs will continue to be employed by Apple and will serve as chairman of the board. Current COO Tim Cook, who in Steve’s absence both now and in the past has assumed the CEO duties, will be the new CEO of the company.

The trend is no longer your friend

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The computer models forecasting Hurricane Irene’s track have shifted back west today, decisively ending the eastward “trend” of the forecasts, and bringing New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and Southern New England very much back into the bullseye of the risk zone. This also increases the risk of a direct hit (rather than a glancing blow) in North Carolina, and significant impacts in the mid-Atlantic region. Don’t #PANIC, but #PREPARE. This could be a big, big deal.

Details at Weather Nerd and on my Twitter feed. Below, an image of the ECMWF (European), GFDL, GFS and HWRF 96-hour forecasts, as of this afternoon:

Earthquake strikes East Coast!

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As if Hurricane Irene’s menacing approach wasn’t enough, an earthquake of preliminary magnitude 5.9 struck northeastern Virginia about 20 minutes ago, and — as is typical for earthquakes in the eastern two-thirds of the country — was felt far & wide, from Toronto to the Deep South. I haven’t heard any damage reports yet. (I just learned about this via a text message from my mother-in-law, of all people.) But an earthquake of that magnitude in that part of the country could, I would think, cause some actual damage. Don’t laugh, Californians.

East Coast readers, did you feel it? Was there any damage?

[UPDATE, 1:24 PM: There has been damage to the National Cathedral. Coverage here. Also, there are reports that the Washington Monument is tilting. Um, #PANIC!?! … Oh, also, Gizmodo is collecting quake videos.]

P.S. Incidentally, this follows on the heels of Colorado’s largest earthquake since 1967, which hit near Trinidad (in the southern part of the state, near the New Mexico border) late last night, just about the time I was going to bed. It was a 5.3, and no, I didn’t feel it.

P.P.S. About the “felt far & wide” thing, here’s a bit more, from a 2008 blog post:

If you’re a Californian wondering how on earth [a relatively minor earthquake] could be felt so strongly, and in places [so] far afield … , it’s because, as explained here, “seismic waves in the East travel farther and pack more destructive punches.” The exact reason for this phenomenon is a topic of much debate among scientists, but “one explanation is that eastern geology is older and simpler, with fewer faults in the ground to slow the travel of quake waves.” See also here:

Earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S., although less frequent than in the western U.S., are typically felt over a much broader region. East of the Rockies, an earthquake can be felt over an area as much as ten times larger than a similar magnitude earthquake on the west coast.

That point is graphically illustrated here:

Charleston1895

Of course, [today’s earthquake] is nothing compared to the Big One that will someday destroy Memphis and cause massive devastation all across the [central and eastern U.S.].

UPDATE: On phone with my parents. They felt it. Dad: “I was sitting at the computer table, and mom was in the kitchen. And the computer table starts to shake.” It felt like the way it would if mom was sitting at the table fidgeting and shaking it with her legs — but she wasn’t there. “Then I look and see the floor lamp is wobbling. ‘F***. Leanna, there’s an earthquake!'” Mom thinks shaking lasted 30 seconds, Dad thinks two minutes.

UPDATE 2: On the LRT Facebook page, a similar report from my friend Diane Krause in Hartford, CT: “Felt it!! Josh has some restless leg issues, so it’s not uncommon for me to accuse of him of ‘shaking the house’ but this time he stopped moving entirely and the whole house really WAS shaking!! Only lasted a minute or two, we figured it was construction or something until I checked my facebook and saw all the quake statuses.”

P.P.P.S. I suspect, by the time the evening news rolls around, we’ll be hearing that the earthquake was “felt from Canada to Florida, and as far west as Illinois,” or something like that.

P.P.P.P.S. Some folks, in New York City and elsewhere, saw tweets about the earthquake before the felt the acutal earthquake, for reasons explained by Gizmodo here.

Meanwhile, it seems some folks want to be mayor of the earthquake.

UPDATE: Heh:

Police departments in greater Hartford said that the earthquake resulted in a flood of phone calls, although none reporting injuries or damage.

East Hartford police said that they received “about 9 million phone calls,” reporting the shaking, while West Hartford police said they were inundated with descriptions of ground shaking. In Glastonbury and Manchester, dispatchers were similarly tied up, taking call after call from residents eager to report the quake.

I’m still alive, I swear…

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…I’ve just had no time to blog for the last week-and-a-half. My evening free time is largely taken up holding a baby, and, well, it’s hard to type while you’re doing that. But hey, at least nothing newsworthy/blogworthy has happened during that time, like, oh I don’t know:

• Michelle Bachmann wins the Iowa Straw Poll;
Generic Republican drops out of the presidential race;
photo.JPG• America’s next president, Rick Perry, enters the presidential race (#PANIC!);
• Tripoli falls to the Libyan rebels, and Moammar Gadhafi’s reign appears to approach its end;
• Hurricane Irene forms, threatens to become the season’s first major hurricane and hit the Southeast U.S. (or perhaps the Northeast? NYC?!?);
• A tragic, weather-related accident during a Sugarland concert at the Indiana State Fair kills 7 people;
• Becky gets a new MacBook Air; I finally get us a legitimate TV;
• The SEC decides not to invite Texas A&M (yet), but A&M administrators get permission to go conference-hunting;
• The AP poll comes out, ranking Boise State #5 (bus!), Notre Dame #16 and USC #25;
• Miami’s athletic department is hit with the Tsar Bomba of sports exposés, led by this absolute gem of a paragraph:

In 100 hours of jailhouse interviews during Yahoo! Sports’ 11-month investigation, Hurricanes booster Nevin Shapiro described a sustained, eight-year run of rampant NCAA rule-breaking, some of it with the knowledge or direct participation of at least seven coaches from the Miami football and basketball programs. At a cost that Shapiro estimates in the millions of dollars, he said his benefits to athletes included but were not limited to cash, prostitutes, entertainment in his multimillion-dollar homes and yacht, paid trips to high-end restaurants and nightclubs, jewelry, bounties for on-field play (including bounties for injuring opposing players), travel and, on one occasion, an abortion.

As many as seventy-two players are implicated, not to mention, like, a half-dozen assistant coaches. Oh, and the athletic director who was overseeing the department through the “eight-year run of rampant NCAA rule-breaking”? None other the Paul Dee, the grotesquely hypocritical m***erf***er who chaired the NCAA Infractions Committee that gave USC near-historic sanctions for violations about 1 percent as bad as these, the man who responded to cries of “we didn’t know!” by declaring that “high-profile athletes require high-profile monitoring” … the man who now says of Shapiro, “We didn’t have any suspicion that he was doing anything like this. He didn’t do anything to cause concern. … In terms of kids getting close to him or him getting close to the kids, I have no knowledge of that and my staff had no knowledge of that.”

So…yeah…nothing’s happened. 🙂

slmandel: Two weeks from …

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@slmandel: Two weeks from tonight I will be at an actual college football game. The last one (Auburn-Oregon) seems like 3 yrs ago. Let’s do this!