Daniels says no

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Brendan is probably too busy crying in a corner somewhere to post this update, so it’s left up to me to break the news that his favorite GOP Presidential candidate, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, has decided against a 2012 Presidential run. Reportedly, his wife and children were not in favor of the idea. No word on whether Daniels was simply too disappointed about not being raptured.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: I am indeed disappointed. Here is Politico‘s rundown on what happened. It’s really a shame that questions about Cheri Daniels’s fitness as a wife and mother, which — unlike issues in a candidate’s personal life that possibly reflect on his “character” or “judgment” — aren’t even arguably relevant to the candidate’s fitness for office, helped prevent this good man from seeking the presidency. But there it is.

In keeping with Nate Silver’s analysis, I’m now back to thinking that I’ll need to support either Generic Republican (Pawlenty) or the Republican John Kerry (Romney) in the primaries, in order to stop Palin/Bachmann from sniffing presidential power. Ugh. (Of course I’d love to see Huntsman get the nomination, but I can’t see that happening; unlike Daniels, he’s too much of a RINO.)

UPDATE #2 BY BRENDAN: On a related note, Tim Pawlenty is officially in the race (no longer just “exploring”), and he’s announced it with… a generic campaign video! Featuring generic uplifting music! Generic promises of straight talk and “courage”! Generic shots at Obama! Generic folksy dropping of the “g” at the end of the phrase “It’s not workin’!” A generic recounting of his generic blue-collar town background! And a climactic statement so generic — “I know the American dream, because I’ve lived it” — that I’m surprised it didn’t cause this ad to collapse on itself in some sort of quantum singularity of endless, inescapable genericness!

“I’m Tim Pawlenty, I’m the Generic Republican, and I’m running for president! Vote for me, because, meh!”

Actually, it’s a rather good video. But I can’t help making fun.

[Original timestamp 12:11 AM on 5/22. Bumped to top. -ed.]

Quoth the Rapture: Nevermore

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BREAKING: Sources say #Rapture cancelled after an air-traffic controller in Heaven fell asleep on the job.Sun May 22 00:04:00 via Echofon

Where were you on the day the world didn’t end?

It's 6:00 PM in Denver. I note a distinct lack of flying naked Christians outside. #Rapture

The above picture was taken out my window at precisely 6:00 PM Saturday, when the Rapture was scheduled to hit the Mountain Time Zone, airlifting the Saved to Heaven. As you can see, there is a distinct lack of people ascending into the sky.

Harold Camping was wrong. I know — I, too, am shocked, shocked.

Harold Camping would like to announce that the #Rapture did not fail to materialize; we’re just holding it wrong.Sat May 21 15:42:54 via Echofon

If you want to read an alternate-universe account of what would have happened Saturday if the Rapture had actually occurred, this blog is pretty excellent. I read every post, and enjoyed it thoroughly.

I also rather enjoyed Saturday’s New York Daily News front page:

gal_frontpage_0521

And I enjoyed, perhaps a bit too much, all the ridiculous Twitter humor surrounding the non-Rapture over the last few days. Like this tweet:

Would be awesome if somehow Jesus could play Rick Astley in the sky at 6:00 pm.Sat May 21 21:34:27 via TweetDeck

Heh. Anyway, to memorialize this non-event for posterity, after the jump I’ve copied a bunch of tweets — mine and others’ — from Friday afternoon/evening, Saturday, and Sunday morning (picking up where my last post left off).

P.S. But first! I totally forgot to include this awesome, and apropos, Johnny Cash song in my previous post:

Okay, on with the tweets:

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Rapture? I barely even know her!

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If you haven’t heard, the Rapture is coming on Saturday.

Reminder: TSA will be conducting random pre-#Rapture “enhanced pat downs” to ensure air travelers’ safety during flights to Heaven tomorrow.Fri May 20 15:04:48 via web

Specifically, the Rapture is coming at 6:00 PM local time on Saturday. (Apparently, God respects time zones!) So it’ll start in Kiribati and sweep westward across the globe, I guess. Some folks are planning Rapture Parties. Others are making contingency plans for their pets. (No, really.)

Meanwhile, those of us in the ranks of the Unsaved are getting ready for… nothing to happen. Or, just possibly, getting ready to witness the spectacle of our Saved compatriots being suddenly sucked up into the Great Fairy Story in the Sky, leaving us heathens here on Earth to deal first with the FlashForward-like aftermath of the Rapture itself, followed by the coming Apocalypse, presided over by President Hillary Clinton (c’mon, you know she’s arranged with God, or Satan if necessary, that Obama, Biden, Boehner and Inouye will all be Raptured).

Personally, I’m mostly just excited for the beer & broads party I’m going to throw on Sunday for my good tweet-friend Zach, a devout Mormon, who has agreed with my suggestion that, if the Rapture happens, thus disproving the tenets of his faith (Mormons don’t believe in the Rapture), it’s time to live it up.

Anyway, as you can tell, I’ve been having some fun with this on Twitter, as have many folks. For posterity — you know, so after the Rapture happens, I can remember how I foolishly made fun of it beforehand — I just thought I’d share a few of my tweets about it…

Can horses be Saved? Because if some Preakness contestants ascended into Heaven in the middle of the race Saturday, THAT WOULD BE AWESOME.Fri May 20 04:06:47 via web

Though I suppose I’d settle for jockies being lifted off horses in mid-stretch. Let’s get the timing right on this, God. #Preakness #RaptureFri May 20 04:08:04 via web

We need the Johnsons, Dave and Gus, on the call for the #Preakness #Rapture. “And DOWN the stretch they…” “OOOOOHHHH!!! THEY’RE FLYING!!!”Fri May 20 04:50:30 via web

Someone needs to follow Tim Tebow around town Saturday with a live streaming video feed. #RaptureCamFri May 20 04:02:49 via web

Is there already a #RaptureUpsides meme? If not, can I start it? … Smaller AT&T network = fewer dropped iPhone calls. #RaptureUpsidesThu May 19 15:23:35 via web

Pac-12 becomes nation’s undisputed premier football conference as entire SEC & much of Big XII, Big Ten ascend to Heaven. #RaptureUpsidesFri May 20 16:01:40 via web

A *lot* less traffic coming into and out of Denver from Colorado Springs. #RaptureUpsidesThu May 19 15:24:26 via web

Permanent Democratic Majority #RaptureUpsidesThu May 19 15:24:47 via web

Donald Trump blows a gasket when his toupee ascends to Heaven. #RaptureUpsidesThu May 19 15:29:14 via web

UPDATE: On a related note, Salon ponders scenarios in which Newt Gingrich can become the GOP nominee. Possibly the most plausible:

The Rapture does happen this weekend, but only Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush ascend to heaven.

In this scenario, most of the GOP candidates and would-be candidates will be in the clouds with Jesus. Gingrich, a recent convert to Catholicism, probably takes an Amillennial view of Revelations, and will remain on Earth with the sinners. He’ll still have to defeat Tea Party favorite Herman Cain, who may or may not be a charming antichrist figure, but Gingrich will probably be able to take advantage of the fact that most Tea Party-affiliated Republican primary voters will have already raptured.

Heh. More of my Rapture tweets (including some new ones added Friday morning) after the jump.

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The SEC: it’s a WIMP!

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The biggest reason to either scrap or overhaul the BCS is to prevent the nearly annual ritual (only exceptions in the last decade: 2002 and 2005) of some team having a very legitimate claim that it should have had a title shot. But the second-biggest reason is to stop incentivizing scheduling fiascos like this.

ESPN has ranked the “toughest” non-conference schedules in the SEC, and #1 and #2 (LSU and Georgia) are respectable, each featuring one elite opponent (Oregon, Boise), one respectable BCS foe (West Virginia, Georgia Tech), one terrible I-A team (Western Kentucky, New Mexico State) and one I-AA team (Northwestern State, Coastal Carolina). They also feature one road game and one neutral game apiece (although Boise-Georgia in Atlanta is stretching the definition of “neutral,” but Boise’s really good, so I’ll give the Bulldogs a pass on that). These are not world-beating schedules, given that they are 50% throwaway games, but at least they’re respectable.

But look at the schedule that’s ranked #3 on the list: the third-toughest non-conference schedule in the SEC:

Arkansas: Sept. 3 – Missouri State; Sept. 10 – New Mexico in Little Rock; Sept. 17 – Troy; Oct. 1 – Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas

Seriously? Seriously?!? And this isn’t just a problem of poor ranking by ESPN. The schedules really do get worse from there.

Look, I know the SEC is the best football conference in the country. I know it’s won 836 consecutive national championships, or something like that. I know it’s really hard to get through the SEC schedule undefeated. (It’s also really hard to get through the Pac-10 schedule undefeated — even harder now that it’s the Pac-12 — and the same goes for at least the Big 12 and Big Ten. But I digress.)

But come on. The league’s third-toughest schedule is Missouri State, Troy, New Mexico (all at home) and Texas A&M (neutral)?!? That’s absolutely pathetic. I realize A&M is supposed to be pretty good in 2011-12, but give me a break. Oh, and if you’re wondering who’s #4:

Ole Miss: Sept. 3 – Brigham Young; Sept. 10 – Southern Illinois; Oct. 1 – at Fresno State; Nov. 12 – Louisiana Tech

How are we supposed to have any idea how good the SEC actually is — other than simply resting on their laurels from prior years, which is exactly what these teams are (quite rationally) doing — if virtually NOBODY in the league plays ANYBODY of any significance?

As much as I enjoy making fun of the SEC for this, it’s a huge structural problem, because they’re acting on perfectly rational incentives in doing this. This has got to be fixed.

Hawking: Heaven is a “fairy story”

Much ink is being spilled today over Stephen Hawking’s comment in an interview with The Guardian that “I regard the brain as a computer which will stop working when its components fail. There is no heaven or afterlife for broken down computers; that is a fairy story for people afraid of the dark.”

So… is he right?

As a fairly scientifically-minded person not predisposed to take things on faith, this is a question I’ve wrestled with for a long time. Actually, I can be more specific than that. It’s a question I’ve wrestled with since Mrs. Duetsch’s World History I class, my freshman year in high school, going on 16 years ago. Mind you, I went to public school, this was a history class, and Mrs. Duetsch wasn’t teaching religion (or its absence). Not at all. She was straightforwardly teaching the early part of the history of human civilization — the ancient Mesopotamians, the ancient Egyptians, etc. And of course, as part of learning the histories of those ancient societies, you learn about their religious beliefs.

Up until that point, I knew almost nothing about religions other than a handful of flavors of Christianity, and (vaguely) Judaism. I knew, of course, that other religions existed, and had existed throughout the history of humanity, but I’d never really been exposed to them in any level of detail. And now suddenly, I started learning about all these strange, quirky, oddball beliefs that these ancient peoples had — most notably about the afterlife, and what it takes to get there. And I thought to myself, “Isn’t that funny? Isn’t that odd?” And: “They sure did go through a lot of trouble to convince themselves of this elaborate afterlife they believed in, and to set up all sorts of rituals about how you get there.”

And then came the critical follow-up. I thought, “Wait a minute. Wouldn’t they think the same thing about us? And why shouldn’t they?” Is it really so much less quirky, less odd, to believe that Jesus Christ died on a cross to redeem mankind and that, thanks to Him, we go to Heaven if we live virtuous lives (and/or repent for our sins)? Or that there’s a Messiah who hasn’t yet come, but that He will someday? On what basis should I be inclined to suspect that those objectively silly-sounding notions are any more likely to be true than the silly-sounding beliefs of these various ancient peoples?

Most importantly, I thought, why doesn’t my insight* about the afterlife apply equally to us? Isn’t the simplest explanation for all these competing views about the afterlife simply that we all really, really want to believe there’s an afterlife? Isn’t the infinite capacity of human invention, motivated by an intense desire to believe that we don’t simply cease to exist when we die, by far the most likely explanation for all the varied beliefs about the afterlife? In the absence of a compelling reason to suspect that one set of beliefs is more right than the others, isn’t the simplest answer that they’re all wrong, that there is no afterlife, that we mortals just invented the concept entirely out of whole cloth?

Basically, unbeknownst to Mrs. Duetsch or anyone else in class, World History I made me an agnostic. And that’s where I’ve been ever since.

I don’t know where or when I first heard the Voltaire quote, “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him,” but that was basically the insight I arrived at independently, except substitute “the Afterlife” for “God.” (Whether there’s some higher organizing power in the Universe that could reasonably be called “God” is, for me, a separate question.) And I truly believe that. If there were no afterlife, we humans would surely believe that there is one anyway. (Well, most of us would.) The motivations to invent the idea are too obvious, too utterly compelling: first and foremost the overwhelming reluctance to believe that everything simply ends when we die (and, perhaps even more powerfully, when those we love die), but also the desire to create incentives to live a virtuous life, even when nobody’s watching. We want to believe that the unfairly maligned will have an eternal reward, and that those who escape justice in this world will find it in the next. Of course we want to believe that. Whether it’s true or not, we would want to believe it.

But does that prove it’s not true? Not necessarily. Occam’s razor, in my view, suggests that there is no afterlife. I might even say strongly suggests. But Occam’s razor isn’t a law; it doesn’t posit that the simplest explanation is always right. Just that it tends to be right. So it’s certainly still possible that, although we would believe in Heaven even if it were a “fairy story,” it just so happens that it’s not a “fairy story”: it actually exists, conveniently enough! That’s possible. I can’t disprove that, any more than I can prove it. And so I remain agnostic on the question, and continue to cross my fingers and hope that Hawking is wrong — and continue to say things like “Rest in Peace,” and to reference Heaven when people die, earnestly hoping in my heart that those words aren’t empty — even as a substantial portion of me suspects that Hawking is probably right.

(This has been your Living Room Times Religion/Philosophy Corner entry for the day. We now return you to your regularly scheduling political flame wars, already in progress.)

*I use the term “my insight” very loosely. I realize that this is by no means an earth-shattering idea. It’s something that countless others have thought of, and have articulated far better than me. I only say “my insight” because, at age 13 or 14, I came to this idea independently, not triggered by reading any great thinkers on the matter, nor by hearing a pithy quote like Voltaire’s “it would be necessary to invent him” or Marx’s “opiate of the masses,” but rather simply by learning about ancient religions and then making some logical leaps from there. And yet in the years since, despite reading all sorts of interesting and insightful commentaries on the matter, and despite (I hope!) maturing intellectually, I’ve never been able to really meaningfully expand on that initial “insight.” I still don’t feel I have a solid answer to the question, and I doubt I ever will.

What Obama should demand: eliminate the debt limit

Yesterday, the federal government hit the debt limit, and the Treasury Department started instituting “extraordinary measures” — which waste taxpayers’ money — to buy a few more months for Congress to dither, grandstand and demagogue, instead of authorizing the issuance of debt that is mathematically necessary in order to spend the money that Congress has already ordered the Treasury Department to spend.

Obviously, Congress’s actions in this regard are completely indefensible as a matter of policy and/or logic. Even if Paul Ryan’s budget plan became law tomorrow, the debt limit would need to increase, and substantially! So there is no possible intellectual justification for the notion of not increasing it. And of course, if you can’t intellectually justify not doing X, then “we’re not going to do X unless you do Y” is not a legitimate bargaining position. (It might be an effective bargaining position, in much the same way that “I’m going to kill your family unless you do Y” might be an effective position, but it’s not a legitimate one.) The time for Congress to argue about the debt is when it’s passing taxation and spending bills that wholly determine the level of borrowing necessary to run the government. Making a scene about the debt when the ceiling approaches, as Democrats (including Senator Obama) have done before, and as Republicans are doing now, is pure political theater, not an actual position that can be defended in any way, shape or form.

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Tim Pawlenty to win GOP nomination by forfeit?

Hot on the heels of the big Huck-a-no, Donald Trump has announced that he’s not running for president either. Next up on the I’m-not-running announcement circuit: Palin? (Please?)

Hopefully Mitch Daniels bucks the trend, and soon. (Run, Mitch, run!) If not, with Romney imploding over his sordid past, and all the other candidates not really very credible in the final analysis (a Mormon RINO from Utah, a crazy-eyed crazy person from Minnesota, a washed-up former House speaker whose inability to stay on-message would make Joe Biden blush, a one-note social conservative Catholic who lost his last election by a gazillion points and is the victim of an embarrassing Internet meme, a pizza CEO who nobody’s ever heard of, a libertarian former governor of New Mexico who nobody’s ever heard of, and, yes, Tom Jones Ron Paul), the Generic Republican may win the nomination by forfeit.

By the way, here is Nate Silver’s take on the state of the race in Iowa, post-Huckabee. (This was before Trump’s announcement, though Silver ranked him last in the “third tier” anyway.) The scariest line in the piece: “Iowa is almost certainly a must-win for Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. … But she is sufficiently skilled politician that a victory there could give her a plausible chance at the nomination.” #PANIC!!!

Up, up and away

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The second-to-last Space Shuttle launch went off without a hitch this morning. Rep. Gabby Giffords was in attendance as her husband, Mark Kelly, commander of STS-134, and the rest of Endeavour‘s final crew rocketed into orbit. Spaceflight Now has complete coverage.

The most amazing view of the launch comes from Stephanie Gordon, a.k.a. @Stafmara, who tweeted this photo and this photo of the launch as seen from her airplane window, on a flight from New York to Palm Beach. Here’s a video she took:

Here are some more typical launch shots, Creative Commons-licensed pics from Flickr, by Lauren Mitchell (the two photos immediately below) and Robyn Pollman (far below).

Final Endeavour Launch 5/16/11

Final Endeavour Launch 5/16/11

final endeavor.

I may get a chance to see the Shuttle myself on Memorial Day, May 30. If the flight plan doesn’t change, Endeavour will undock from the International Space Station at 9:53 PM MDT Sunday night, May 29. Roughly 7 1/2 hours later, from 4:19 to 4:26 AM Monday, the ISS will fly over Denver, with the Shuttle very close by. As I’ve said before: “Trust me: even if you’re not into dorky stuff like Iridium flares, this is well worth a trip outside at the proper time, if the sky is clear.” The sight of “two distinct, bright dots, moving briskly across the evening sky in tandem — two unmistakable beacons of the human presence in space” is “a really neat thing to see.” And this being the second-to-last chance ever to see them, I will totally get out of bed early on a holiday to watch them, if the schedule stays on course and the sky looks likely to be clear.

You can use Heavens-Above to check the specific viewing conditions for your location. If you’re in the U.S., just click hereand enter the name of your city or town, then select it from the resulting list of locales. (If you’re outside the U.S., select your country here and then follow the same steps.) On the screen that follows, click on “10 day predictions for: ISS.” First, check and see if you have any visible flyovers tomorrow evening, May 17 or early Wednesday morning, May 18, before docking at 4:15 AM MDT. (We don’t have any of those here in Denver.) Then, click “Next” up near the top right corner (to look at the next 10 days), and look for a morning flyover on May 30.

P.S. You can also look for flyovers at any other point during the mission, including when they’re docked together. But unless you have powerful binoculars, the ISS and Shuttle docked together just look like a single point of light, not distinct dots. So while you know intellectually that you’re looking at two distinct spacecrafts, you can’t actually tell. By contrast, when they’ve just undocked or are just about to dock, you can see it with your own eyes, and it’s awesome.

P.P.S. The final Shuttle mission, STS-135, flown by Atlantis, is scheduled to launch July 12. Who knows — we might be having a baby that day.

Go Rockies!

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At Coors Field with Becky & the girls. Awesome seats.

UPDATE: Well, that didn’t end well. But we had fun! Highlight: dancing with Loyette to “Heyyy baby! (Ooh! Aah!) I wanna kno-oh-oh-ow! If you’ll be my girl.” Oh, and Loyacita repeatedly sticking her finger in my beer and then licking it off. (#PANIC?)