Last Man 2014

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

Here is my annual live-tweeting window for #LastMan. (I’m not playing, but others are.)

What the heck is #LastMan, you ask? Read on, underneath the live-tweeting window, to find out.

WARNING: This post contains #TheKnowledge.

 

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Last Man, a.k.a. #lastman, is a game of deliberate media / knowledge avoidance, invented by Mid-Majority founder Kyle Whelliston. Its full name is “Last Man in America to Know Who Won the Super Bowl.”

Last Man’s five canonical rules are as follows:

Rule 1. The object of this game is to avoid, for as long as possible, learning a) the winner and b) the final score of the Super Bowl. This data is called The Knowledge.

Rule 2. Don’t flee the country. Leaving America means immediate disqualification.

Rule 3. Always play honestly.

Rule 4. If you receive information that might constitute The Knowledge, but you aren’t certain (e.g., if someone might be “messing with you” by telling you a false winner or score), you can opt not to believe the uncertain information and keep playing. However, if it turns out that the uncertain information was correct, the game’s end point is retroactive to when The Knowledge was, in fact, known.

Rule 5. Nobody ever wins. It’s a game you play against yourself, so it always ends in a loss, eventually.

Who is eligible to play Last Man? That’s a subject of some disagreement. Kyle says:

One of the more common questions I get about Last Man is this: why isn’t there such a thing as Last Woman? Aren’t there Title IX considerations to take into account? Is this some sort of institutional sexism? I say hogwash on all counts. This is one game where women have unfair and unmistakable advantages over men. Most females in the United States can’t name more than a few NFL teams, much less bother to keep track of the pro playoffs. There is no possible way an American man can compete on a level playing field.

I respectfully disagree with Kyle, and would argue that “anyone who is a sports fan and regular consumer of sports-related media and information,” male or female, should be eligible (and anyone who is not a sports fan/consumer, male or female, should not be eligible, since the game isn’t nearly as much of a challenge for such people). But I’m just some guy who played the game once, and who has followed it a few times; my opinions carry no official weight. Kyle’s stance is the canonical one.

Here are some helpful, historical links about Last Man:

2007:

  • Sort of an oblique discussion of the Last Man concept: http://www.midmajority.com/p/540

2008:

  • I think this is the first post where Kyle publicly discussed Last Man as a game: http://www.midmajority.com/p/769
  • Kyle’s post about his Last Man run being hilariously ended on Tuesday by the student section at a Valparaiso game: http://www.midmajority.com/p/777

    image

2009:

  • Kyle’s post on Last Man XXI, when he only lasted ~16 hours: http://www.midmajority.com/p/1271

2010:

  • Kyle’s running liveblog of Last Man XXII, when he made it to Thursday night, his personal record: http://www.midmajority.com/p/1595

2011:

  • Kyle’s backgrounder ahead of Last Man XXIII: http://www.midmajority.com/p/1898  
      
  • Kyle’s running liveblog of Last Man XXIII: http://www.midmajority.com/p/1899  
    (This is probably Kyle’s best & most thorough #lastman post ever.)

  • My Cover It Live & screenshot-based live-tweet archive of Last Man (and Find The Last Man): http://www.brendanloy.com/lrt/2011/02/findthelastman/

2012:

  • My Cover It Live tweet archive of Kyle and other Mid-Majority community members playing #lastman: http://www.brendanloy.com/lrt/2012/02/last-man-live-and-go-giants/

2013:

  • My blog post, with photos, videos, etc., and Cover It Live live-tweet archive of myself & others playing #lastman: http://www.brendanloy.com/lrt/2013/02/last-man-live/

2014:

Who’s playing this year? Here’s the Twitter List. We had, to my knowledge, 15 players at the beginning:

  • @abigaildrozek
  • @appflyer
  • @billthay
  • @carney
  • @dgmcdowell
  • @hradzka
  • @jmsmllr
  • @jscottfitzwater
  • @kateyiannis
  • @laurenlyster
  • @notsalome
  • @oddblots
  • @stlvufan
  • @timmybarry
  • @travelingraytmm

As per usual, however, they started dropping like flies shortly after the Super Bowl ended – releasing #TheKnowledge into the wild – at 9:55 PM Eastern Time Sunday.

On Sunday night, we lost @kateyiannis to Death by Roommate (i.e., an in-person spoiler by @flowrmeadow), @AppFlyer to Death by College Friend, @billthay to Death by CBS Sports App push alert (immediately after surviving two flights), and @timmybarry to Death by a Friend at an Ohio Rest Stop.

On Monday morning, we lost @hradzka (who had begun playing #lastman by accident) to Death by Twitter, @StlVUFan to Death by Cleveland Leader, and @LaurenLyster to Death by E-mail Subject Line and CNN Chryon. Monday afternoon saw another casualty: @jmsmllr, who suffered Death by Sabotage in AP Biology class.

That’s eight #lastman casualties in the first 24 hours, which leaves seven still alive (among known, declared players) as of Monday night: @abigaildrozek, @carney, @dgmcdowell, @jscottfitzwater, @notsalome, @oddblots and @travelingraytmm.

Here are some notable Monday-evening tweets from our still-alive players:

That’s a tweet from J. Scott Fitzwater’s wife, Abigail, confirming that both Fitzwaters are still in the game. (Scott is a #LastMan Hall of Famer, or would be if that existed. He was burned Monday morning last year, but he still doesn’t know who won the 2012 Super Bowl.)

Ray is this season’s Mid-Majority Traveler – essentially, “this year’s Kyle Whelliston” – but he also has a day job as a high-school teacher in Connecticut, so he assumed he’d be out early. Instead, he was saved by the snow day!

Kyle, incidentally, either isn’t playing #lastman this year, or isn’t talking about it. Disillusioned by the media coverage (see also here and here), he has declared that #lastman “belongs to the people now.”

Anyway, back to the notable tweets from this year’s runners:

Carney is a Wall Street Journal writer (as of today; he just moved over from CNBC), and this year’s most prominent #lastman player. Last year, he made it to early Wednesday morning.

And finally…

Carney, with his CNBC and WSJ gigs and his 42K followers, may be the most prominent #KnowledgeRunner, but McDowell has emerged as this year’s social-media “face of Last Man” (a.k.a. this year’s Brendan Loy), posting frequent updates on his #lastman status via a carefully filtered and curated Twitter presence. He was also featured in this morning’s ABC News article by Alyssa Newcomb – link here; #TheKnowledge-free redacted version here – which was tweeted out by @Nightline (1.4 million followers) and @Ron_Fournier (25,000 followers), among others.

As for the other two still-standing #KnowledgeRunners…

So, there you have it: your seven contenders, still running from The Knowledge.

Finally, here are some notable milestones that certain players might be aiming for, keeping in mind that the game ended at 9:55 PM Eastern Time (vs. 10:44 PM last year):

Wednesday, ~8:40 AM Eastern: John Carney’s personal record (2 days, 10 hours, ~45 minutes)

Wednesday, 11:49 AM Eastern: My personal record (2 days, 13 hours, 54 minutes)

Friday, 12:44 AM Eastern: Kyle Whelliston’s personal record (4 days, 2 hours, 49 minutes*)

Sometime in February 2016 (or later): J. Scott Fitzwater’s personal record (1 year, 363 days and counting)

*This was Kyle’s time in 2010. I should note, however, that he has given conflicting accounts about an early game of #lastman, way back in 1989, when the Bengals played the 49ers. He wrote six years ago that he made it “until Wednesday afternoon” that year, but then stated three years ago, “I don’t remember how long I went. It was weeks and weeks, almost to March. But I do remember how I found out. There was a stack of old Sporting News copies in the local public library. On the cover of one, a color picture and a headline: ‘49ers Strike Gold.’” I don’t know which account is more accurate, but for purposes of this milestone, I’m treating his best time of the Mid-Majority Era, from 2010, as the “record.”

TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE: Man down! Man down! The Mid-Majority’s “Traveler,” Ray Curren, is out of the game, having acquired #TheKnowledge after 1 day, 9 hours and 40 minutes.

Here’s a follow-up tweet by Curren, explaining how he would have lost anyway, a short while thereafter, at the high school in Connecticut where he teaches, if NPR hadn’t caught him first:

So anyway, we’re down to six. And it’s a struggle out there:

Keep running, guys!!

TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: We are down to the #lastman Final Four, folks. @notsalome and @oddblots are out:

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE: And just like that, BOOM, only two remain.

First, this, at 8:30 PM Eastern Time:

They didn’t stay a “final three” for long, though. Barely an hour later:

And so, only two remain in contention:

More from Carney:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: There are no new eliminations to report. Both of the remaining #runners still lack #TheKnowledge at last report. They’ve now lasted longer than I did last year:

The day’s biggest drama thus far was created accidentally by me, as explained in this Storify. Oops. I hope nobody suffers Death By Brendan Loy!

Then there was this exchange with @dgmcdowell (well, really with his “conduit” to the social media world, @jsalario):

Here’s what Kyle had to say about “quitting” back in 2011. (I had forgotten that I got the marathon analogy directly from him.)

Let us, just for a second, contemplate what it means to quit. It’s one of the words we have that means multiple things, a small failure of our language. Sports is a world where there are many quitters: the DNF’s, the abandoners, those who give up in the middle. In Our Game, quitting is to retire from competition even as the competition continues on. Players walk away suddenly; teams give up hope in the middle of seasons or games. It’s the Q word, the worst thing.

In real life, quitting means to stop doing something. To quit a job is to leave and do something else, to quit a relationship is to snap a string connecting you to another person. I don’t think this is the same thing as in organized sports; in one of the two, it’s the wrong word to use, and I don’t know which should stop using it. In sports, the primary narrative is the team, the season, the game itself. To remove individual will from a grander collective effort and struggle is only a small piece of the story; quitting will not disrupt things that much, if at all. In the human arc, quitting anything represents a major plot twist.

This is why Last Man is more like life than sport. There is no set time goal, and it’s wide open, featuring a beginning but no middle or end. The game can theoretically last until actual death, and nobody among us knows if there’s television in the afterlife. I do, however, have a strong inclination that hell gets each and every one of the ESPN channels.

Beginning marathon runners often report a powerful urge to abandon, which kicks in after 20 miles or so. It gets very psychological: Why am I running? What would finishing this race really prove? My legs hurt. There, over there, that grass patch… doesn’t that look comfortable? Let’s sit down. Those who give in and stop are quitters in context: they know they still had six miles to go, and there’s no ambiguity about that.

In Last Man, there is no finish line. But I will not quit. I will not stop. I am a Knowledge Runner.

David is still running, but here is his latest update, a few minutes ago:

Keep running!!

WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE: Turns out, Fitzwater has been out since yesterday. McDowell is the #lastman standing!

Congrats, David! But remember: Rule 5. It always ends in a loss. Until #TheKnowledge wins, the game goes on.

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE: Of course, “the record” we’re discussing just refers to Kyle’s personal best. The all-time record is nigh unassailable, and it reached a new milestone last night:

Meanwhile, on the morning of Day 4, McDowell is getting all philosophical:

I hope nobody takes that as a challenge. Keep running, David!

THURSDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: The game is over! David McDowell has been eliminated, in stunning fashion, by an anonymous #lastassassin – who, it turns out, also eliminated Abigail Drozek!

But how was David knocked out?

Attention quickly turned to investigating the @Sea43_Den8 account… which led to a shocking surprise.

But who is it?

But:

Finally, the #lastassassin spoke – but refused to reveal his (or her) true identity:

Meanwhile, McDowell said he’s not angry. The Fitzwaters? Well…

A few final wrap-up tweets:

And with that…

Here’s the final scorecard for #lastman 2014.

Eliminated Sunday night:

  • @kateyiannis — Death by Roommate (?) (in-person spoiler by @flowrmeadow)
  • @AppFlyer — Death by College Friend
  • @billthay — Death by CBS Sports App push alert (immediately after surviving two flights)
  • @timmybarry — Death by a Friend at an Ohio Rest Stop

Eliminated Monday morning:

  • @hradzka — Death by Twitter (having played #lastman by accident)
  • @StlVUFan — Death by Cleveland Leader
  • @LaurenLyster — Death by E-mail Subject Line and CNN Chryon

Eliminated Monday afternoon:

  • @jmsmllr — Death by Sabotage in AP Biology class

Eliminated Tuesday morning:

  • @travelingraytmm — Death by NPR (shortly before would-be Death by High School Girls)

Eliminated Tuesday afternoon:

  • @notsalome — Death by New York Times E-mail News Alert (from Sunday night; belatedly viewed Tuesday)
  • @oddblots — Death by NYT Dealbook blog (this story, linked from Dealbook e-mail)

Eliminated Tuesday evening:

  • @jscottfitzwater —  Death by Black History Month conversation
  • @carney — Death by WSJ front page at newsstand near his apartment
  • @abigaildrozek — Death by Sabotage, courtesy of @Sea43_Den8

Eliminated Thursday midday:

  • @dgmcdowell — Death by Sabotage, courtesy of @Sea43_Den8

See you next year, everyone!!!

[Redacted] [##], [Redacted] [##], final

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

For complete live coverage of Last Man 2014 (and an explanation of what it is), click here.

This post is solely for the purpose of giving active Knowledge Runners a redacted, #TheKnowledge-free version of Alyssa Newcomb’s ABC News blog post about #lastman.

The original article is here, but it contains The Knowledge. Below is my redacted version:

Quest to Be the Last Man in US to Learn Super Bowl Winner

The quest to be the last man on earth [sic; in America] to find out who won the Super Bowl [REDACTED INFORMATION ABOUT GAME].

David McDowell, 24, of Oxford, Miss., still doesn’t know that the [WINNING TEAM] [VERB SIGNIFYING VICTORY] the [LOSING TEAM] [FINAL SCORE] and he doesn’t want anyone to spoil it for him.

It’s all part of a game called #LastMan and the goal is to be the last person to find out #TheKnowledge, which is the lingo players use for the outcome of the Super Bowl.

While millions of people watched the [WINNING TEAM] [VERB SIGNIFYING VICTORY] the [LOSING TEAM], McDowell told ABCNews.com he went to the grocery store and then went to bed around 8:30 p.m. Central Standard Time to “avoid some of the hubub.”

At least ten players committed on Twitter to take the #LastMan challenge and are now going through extreme measures to avoid learning #TheKnowledge, but by this afternoon, a few were already out of the game.

“Headphones are always a good idea,” McDowell said.

He’s also installed blockers on his computer so he can’t impulsively check his favorite websites that might spoil the game for him. His co-workers also know better than to talk about the Super Bowl with him, he said.

“I’d like to make it through Tuesday but I’d feel truly accomplished if I made it to Thursday or Friday,” he said. “Honestly, I’m surprised I made it this far.”

Here’s how some of McDowell’s #LastMan competitors are avoiding #TheKnowledge — and how one was knocked out of the game.

Again, the article is here, but it contains The Knowledge.

WARNING: Do not read the comments below if you are playing #lastman. I cannot vouch for them remaining free of #TheKnowledge.

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

#UnitedInOrange

An unexpected “odyssey”

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

I’m a member of the Young Professionals Board at the Denver Center for the Performing Arts, which runs the Denver Center Theatre Company’s “Fourth Wall” program for young-adult theatergoers. In that capacity, I’m “co-hosting” an event this Saturday*, in preparation for which, I went last Saturday to see Marcus Gardley’s world premiere play black odyssey.

*[Side note to fellow 20- and 30-something Denverites: You’re invited! I can get you a discount! Contact me for details!]

Black odyssey is billed as a “retelling” of Homer’s Odyssey, in which “classic Greek characters and themes meet modern African-American culture.” Folks “in the know” at DCTC all seemed very excited about “this compelling new play [that] fuses modern reality, humor, and song with ancient myth.” But, personally, in all candor, I didn’t know quite what to expect. I’ve never read The Odyssey – here’s where I kick myself for taking regular general-education classes at USC, instead of challenging myself with Thematic Option – and I have only the most cursory knowledge of African-American culture (having been accused, more than once in my life, of being the “whitest white boy ever”). I also had no familiarity with Gardley’s work as a playwright. So, quite honestly, I wasn’t sure if this play would be “for me,” or if I’d “get” it.

Boy, was I wrong. I was blown away by black odyssey. It’s absolutely phenomenal!!

(Photo by cast member Eric Lockley, a.k.a. emel07 on Instagram.)

The script and plot are wonderful, nuanced, weird and awesome. It’s hard to describe, to someone who hasn’t seen it, what’s happening and why it’s so great – you sort of have to to experience it for yourself. Heck, you may still be a little confused at the intermission. 🙂 But trust me: before it’s over, you’ll get swept up in the “odyssey.”

Also, for a play that isn’t a “musical” per se, there’s a ton of music, all very compelling and/or haunting and/or just generally fantastic. At first, it seems a little strange, but before long, you start to accept and understand what’s going on, and it makes perfect sense. And it’s great.

Besides, “Superfly Tiresias” is worth the price of admission all by himself. He’s pictured above, sorta, but the photo doesn’t do him justice. I won’t give anything more away about that, though. You gotta see it.

Seriously, GO SEE THIS PLAY!

(Fourth Wall members and guests: if you choose The Legend of Georgia McBride – which is also rumored to be awesome – for Saturday’s “choose-your-own-world-premiere night,” that’s great. Heck, that’s what I’m doing! But I highly recommend using one of your 30% discounts to go see black odyssey on a different night. It’s totally worth it. Even if you, too, are ignorant of the classics, of black culture, etc., you should go anyway. Trust me. You’ll love it.)

P.S. Additional links and reading materials about black odyssey:

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

Loyabelle, 2 ½, likes to read her Daddy a book each night. Video of her teaching me some letters:

Loyette, 6, wins Pick ’em by record margin as her sisters, 4 and 2, finish 4th and 7th

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

And a little child shall lead them. Three little children, actually.

All three of Becky’s and my daughters – ages 6, 4 and 2 – finished in the Top 7 of the ninth annual Living Room Times Bowl Pick ‘em Contest.

The 6-year-old, known on the Internet as “Loyette,” not only won the contest, but smashed the all-time record for margin of victory, prevailing by a whopping 6 points (out of 60). “Eternal Glory” indeed!

Meanwhile, the 4-year-old, “Loyacita,” came in 4th, and the 2-year-old, “Loyabelle,” finished 7th. That means 52 of the 56 adult contestants finished behind all three Loy girls. (This includes both of their parents, by a mile. I finished 35th; Becky finished dead last, in 61st.)

Loyette, of course, had already clinched victory on Friday – with much fanfare – when the Orange and Cotton bowls gave her an insurmountable lead. But Loyacita and Loyabelle weren’t assured of their Top 10 finishes until Monday night. If, for instance, Auburn had achieved one final “team of destiny” miracle by scoring a game-winning touchdown in the last 13 seconds, Loyacita would have finished 12th and Loyabelle 13th.

Instead, the Seminoles prevailed, ending the SEC’s national championship dynasty – and perhaps inaugurating a Loy daughters gambling dynasty (or “Loynasty”). Not only did Loyacita and Loyabelle join the Top 7 thanks to FSU’s win, but big sister and contest champion Loyette saw her final point total jump from 41 to 45. Her nearest competitors, Jonathan Bates (@iampangean) and the Loy girls’ uncle, Casey Zak (@caseyzak), each had 39 points, 6 behind Loyette.

The previous largest margin of victory in the 9-year history of Living Room Times Bowl Pick ’em Contests was a mere 2 points, set in 2010-11 by Randy Styles and matched in 2011-12 by @Nyghtewynd. So Loyette tripled the record. (More details after the jump on the record.)

In celebration of her triumph, Loyette wins not only “Eternal Glory,” but also a couple of tangible prizes. Recalling that Loyacita’s victory in my law firm’s 2012 NCAA office pool involved actual cash money (a good portion of which still resides, 21 months later, in her allowance jar, as-yet unspent), Loyette was going to be jealous if her triumph didn’t also earn her some sort of goodies. So I gave her an awesome astronomy book from the post-Christmas discount shelf… and $13 of my own money, a bit of “extra allowance” as a Pick ’em prize.

Notwithstanding her massive margin, points-wise, Loyette’s win-loss record of 25-10 is only one game better than Bates’s 24-11, and nowhere near @Nyghtewynd’s all-time record (I think!) of 29-6 in 2011-12. But Loyette went 4-1 in picking the BCS games – including her successful predictions of back-to-back double-digit upsets by Central Florida (over Baylor) and Oklahoma (over Alabama), and a milder upset by Clemson (over Ohio State) – and 11-3 in the “major” non-BCS bowls. Those games are worth more points than the “minor” bowls (in which Loyette went just 10-6). Her success in picking the biggest games, particularly in a year when they were quite unpredictable, set her apart.

Bates, by contrast, was just 2-3 in picking the BCS games. He was 10-4 in the “major” non-BCS bowls, and 12-4 in the “minor” bowls.

Bates nevertheless celebrated winning the title of “Bowl Pick ’em Champion, Adult Division” as the highest-ranked contestant age 18 or above. (It was suggested that next year’s contest should have “weight classes.” Of course, those aren’t usually instituted to protect the heavyweights from being walloped by the featherweights. Heh.)

Earlier in the day, Bates, a USC alum and Trojan fan, engaged in some friendly trash talk with Courtney Tawresey (@ctawresey), a Notre Dame alum and proud Domer, who would have leap-frogged into 2nd place if Auburn had won. Instead, FSU’s win dropped Tawresey to 24th as she was passed by numerous competitors who picked the Seminoles.

Bates’s 39 points was equal to Casey Zak’s total, but Zak finished third – just missing out on the “adult division” title – because his win-loss record was just 22-13, to Bates’s 24-11. (The first tiebreaker is number of games picked correctly, regardless of point-weights. The second tiebreaker is correctly picking the BCS champion. The third tiebreaker is coming the closest to the total number of points scored in the BCS title game.)

Behind Bates and Zak was a cluster of five contestants with 38 points apiece: Loyacita, John Prisner, Stephen Peroz and Loyabelle (all 22-13), and Zach Bloxham (@zbloxham) (21-14). That quintet finished in the listed order, 4th through 8th, based on tiebreakers, with the 4th through 7th spots settled by the third tiebreaker: number of points in the title game. (They predicted 70, 72, 73 and 23, respectively; the actual total was 65.) Bloxham trailed the group, finishing 8th, because of the first tiebreaker, total number of games picked correctly.

Rounding out the Top 10 were defending champ Ryan Morgan (@rpm002) and 2010-11 winner Randy Styles (@wolfmanbc), each of whom led this year’s contest at one time or another. They both ended up with 37 points, but Morgan went 23-12 – actually the contest’s third-best prediction record, after Loyette and Bates – to finish 9th, while Styles was 22-13, for 10th. Lauren Fowler (@ndlauren) also had 37 points, but finished 11th because she went 21-14.

Notably, in addition to the Loy daughters’ success, two other small children finished in the Top 20: Mike Pusatera’s daughter and son, first-grader Morgan (15th place) and 4-year-old Drew (19th). That means 42 of the 56 adults in the contest finished behind all three Loy girls and both Pusatera kids. As with the Loys, that includes Pusatera himself; he finished 56th.

The moral of the story: take your kids to Vegas, I guess?!? Heh.

I should make clear, lest anyone be suspicious, that each Loy girl truly did make her own independent predictions. I would simply tell them the two teams playing in each game (always in the same order: underdog first, favorite second, per the Vegas line), then they would announce their preference. Here, again, is the audio of Loyette making her picks:

With certain exceptions – like favoring Arizona teams (because Grandpa and Grandma live there), Florida teams (because of our recent vacation there), local favorite Colorado State, parental alma maters USC and Notre Dame, and Mitt Romney alma mater BYU – there was no obvious pattern to Loyette’s choices. She picked 14 upsets, going 9-5 in those games (but memorably and crucially getting the UCF and OU games right), and 21 favorites, going 16-5 there.

Loyacita and Loyabelle, on the other hand, were significantly more predisposed to pick the Vegas favorites (i.e., the second team I said), with notable exceptions: Loyacita correctly picked Colorado State over Washington State (because of the home-state connection), incorrectly picked Miami over Louisville (because of the Florida vacation), and correctly picked Oklahoma over Alabama (no idea why). Loyabelle’s picks were straight “chalk,” picking all favorites, with just one single exception: Michigan State over Stanford in the Rose Bowl (again, no idea why, but it certainly worked out well).

Anyway… after the jump, full standings in graphical form, and then a bit more historical detail about Loyette’s record-setting margin of victory.

Here are this year’s complete final standings (also viewable here, or here if you log in):

The scoring system in LRT Bowl Pick ’em has changed over the years, but Loyette’s margin is the most dominant by any measure.

In the previous three bowl seasons, the Pick ’em contest used the same scoring system as this year: 4 points for the title game, 3 for the other BCS bowls, 2 for major non-BCS bowls, and 1 for minor bowls, with a maximum possible total of 60 points. Prior winners’ margins of victory under that scheme were 2 points (Randy Styles in 2010-11), 2 points (@Nyghtewynd in 2011-12) and 0 points + tiebreaker (Ryan Morgan in 2012-13).

In the two years before that, the contest used simple, unweighted win-loss records. The margins of victory were 0 games + tiebreaker (Amy Booth in 2008-09) and 1 game (Doug Mataconis in 2009-10).

The 2007-08 contest used a similar format to the current and more recent contests, but with different point weights per bowl (5 per BCS bowl, including the title game; 3 per non-BCS New Year’s Day game; 2 per game from Dec. 29-31; 1 per game before that), adding up to a total of 70 points. Seth Carmack won by 1 point.

The 2006-07 contest’s scoring system was almost identical to 2007-08’s, but the championship game was worth 8 points, and the total available number of points was 75. Ben Sloniker won by 1 point.

Finally (or rather firstly), the 2005-06 contest also used weighted points (on a 1-2-3-5 basis), but there were fewer bowls back then (only 28, versus 32 the following year, and 35 currently), and I didn’t assign multiple points to as many of them, so the maximum was just 50 points. Brian Dupuis won by 1 point.

In summary, Bowl Pick ’em champions have won by a margin equivalent to a single “minor” bowl game 4 times (2005-06, 2006-07, 2007-08 and 2009-10); by a margin equivalent to two “minor” bowl games 2 times (2010-11 and 2011-12); and by virtue of a tiebreaker 2 times (2008-09 and 2012-13). Loyette’s margin is equivalent to six minor bowl games.

ETERNAL GLORY: 6-year-old Loyette wins 9th annual LRT Bowl Pick ’em

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

Surging to victory with a 4-game winning streak that included correctly picking consecutive 17-point underdog BCS winners – Central Florida and Oklahoma – Becky’s and my 6-year-old daughter, known on the Internet as “Loyette,” clinched the 9th annual Bowl Pick ‘em Contest championship Friday night, beating out 56 adults and 4 other kids.

I guess she backed up her trash talk:

Loyette’s prediction record is 23-9 with three bowl games left. She has 40 points (out of a possible 54 thus far), fully 5 more than her nearest competitor – her uncle, Casey Zak (@caseyzak), who is second at the moment with 35 points.

Notably, Loyette’s younger sisters, “Loyacita” (age 4) and “Loyabelle” (age 2), are presently tied for sixth place with 33 points each, and may finish as high as fourth.

Here is audio of Loyette – who turned 6 mid-contest, on New Year’s Eve – making her picks at the dining room table on December 20. It begins with her asking for a quick refresher: “What are the bowls?”

Loyette took the lead on December 26 when her predictions of upset wins by Pittsburgh and Utah State in the Pizza and Pointsettia bowls, respectively, came true, lifting her to 7-1 in the early bowls. She held at least a share of first place until Navy knocked her out on December 30.

Starting with the Navy game, Loyette went 8-5 from December 30 through the first four games of January 1, falling to 10th place. But then UCF’s stunning upset win in the Fiesta Bowl late on January 1, which only four contestants predicted, vaulted her all the way to 2nd place. She took back the lead – for good, as it turns out – when, in the very next game, Oklahoma pulled its own stunning upset in the Sugar Bowl on January 3. Tonight’s dramatic wins by Clemson in the Orange Bowl, and Missouri a few minutes later in the Cotton Bowl, sealed the deal.

If you’re wondering, Loyette’s picks for the final three bowls are Vanderbilt over Houston, Ball State over Arkansas State, and Florida State over Auburn by a score of 35-12.

Behind Loyette and her uncle Casey in the standings are Jonathan Bates (@iampangean), John Prisner (@harley57) and Zach Bloxham (@zbloxham), with 34 points apiece. They are in 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively, based on tiebreakers.

Loyette’s younger sisters, Loyacita and Loyabelle, are, as I mentioned, tied for sixth place with 33 points each, as are Lauren Fowler (@ndlauren) and Stephen Peroz. Chris Palmer (@chrispalm) also has 33 points, but is alone in 10th place on a tiebreaker. Complete standings here.

If Vanderbilt and Florida State win, Loyacita and Loyabelle will finish in a 4th-place tie. With all three Loy daughters in the top 4, that would likely intensify the search for Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac in their rooms. 🙂 The Loy parents, meanwhile, can end up no better than 21st (Dad) and 55th (Mom), respectively.

Loyette’s “clinch” with 3 bowls left is the second-earliest in Pick ’em history, trailing only @Nyghtewynd, who clinched with 4 games left in 2012. Two other contests, in 2008 and 2013, were decided with 1 game left. The remaining six went down to the wire, with nobody clinching until the championship game was over.

P.S. Lest any new readers, who haven’t been following this story from the outset on Twitter, suspect the pick ’em administrator / proud daddy of contest-rigging shenanigans, I would direct you to this tweet from December 27. 🙂

UPDATE: Here’s a Storify archive of the Twitter coverage of, and reaction to, Loyette’s run to victory. #TeamLoyette FTW!

The archive is also embedded below, after the jump.

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

Over on Twitter, I’ve posted a couple of lengthy tweet-bursts today which, taken together, constitute a sort of mini-review of “The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug.” Actually, that’s not quite right. Taken together, they constitute a mini-review of the things I didn’t like about “The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug.”

I very, very much enjoyed the movie (I’ve seen it twice, after all, and will again), but I have some significant quibbles and criticisms, and that’s what my tweets were mostly about. I wasn’t focusing on the things I loved – e.g., the conversation with Smaug, the spider scene, the way they made the “bringing a burglar” concept from Tolkien’s 1937 children’s book actually make logical sense, etc. – but rather, on the flaws that I can now clear-headedly critique after watching the movie for a second time last night.

Anyway, because it’s hard to follow an entire tweetsplosion like this, I thought I would present my thoughts here, modified from their original tweet form into something more closely resembling a series of semi-coherent, complete thoughts. At the end, I included a couple of exchanges that I had with Twitter followers. Enjoy:

Went to see “The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug” again (in 3D this time) last night.  What I disliked the most is the overbearing musical score.  I loved the “Lord of the Rings” films’ scores, and it’s Howard Shore again – but this time, he whiffed, IMHO.  Poorly paced, too loud & intense.  The score was jarringly loud and intense at moments that didn’t call for it, and barely ever let up to give you a moment to breathe.  (The same could be said for the film’s overall pacing, but several scenes would have felt more like “breathers” if scored better, IMHO.)

The script also has a few really weak spots, where they try clunkily to convey a thematic point or get a cheap emotional payoff without “earning it."  Like Balin & Bilbo’s interaction in the tunnel, ending with the "courage of hobbits” bit.  That was a pale, forced imitation of a great sequence in the book (as well as a poorly executed evocation of Frodo and Gandalf’s “hobbits really are amazing creatures” moment in “Fellowship of the Ring”). 

Similarly weak, in much the same way, was Balin’s out-of-nowhere “I fear for YOU!” to Thorin, in reference to the latter’s lust for the Arkenstone and willingness to cast Bilbo aside.  I get it, they’re trying to set up film 3, but it wasn’t done well, script-wise.  The “fear” came out of nowhere, and suddenly Balin’s yelling about it.  Huh?

Another beef: at a number of points, “Desolation of Smaug” (and its score) gives us a really intense setup of imminent doom – then resolves it way too glibly.  It starts at the very beginning, with those two over-the-top-menacing ruffians in Bree.  If they’re so menacing, why did they meekly leave?  I realize Gandalf walked in, and I guess we’re supposed to surmise they know not to mess with Gandalf, but it isn’t done well, movie-wise (or score-wise).

Another instance of a scene that sets up “imminent doom” tension, then resolves it way too cheaply/glibly, is the end of the barrel ride.  We see a hundred orcs chasing the barrels down river, as Mr. “This Is Not Our Fight” Legolas watches impassively.  Implication: dwarf #PANIC!  Then we cut away to the “Tombs of the Nazgul” or somesuch bulls**t.  When we return to the dwarves, like 15 minutes later, the orcs are NOWHERE TO BE SEEN.  One dwarf is like, “I think we lost them”… and that’s supposed to resolve the massive, imminent-death-tension cliffhanger from before?  NO!

It’s like Jackson felt the need to have everyone in CONSTANT MORTAL PERIL AT EVERY MOMENT, but couldn’t always be bothered to close the loop.  Why not end the barrel-ride scene with Bolg saying, “Hey guys, we can’t catch them this way, let’s regroup,” instead of OMG IMMINENT #DOOM TENSION?  There was no need for that little internal cliffhanger, and since it wasn’t really resolved, why have it at all?

And *speaking* of the Tombs of the Nazgul…

I’m no purist.  I don’t care that Nazgul Tombs make no sense.  I don’t care that it’d take months to reach the High Fells.  That’s fine.  But WHERE ON EARTH DID RADAGAST COME FROM?  How did Gandalf not see him while climbing the mountain?  That was cheap startle-the-audience gimmickry.

That scene also contained a good example of my criticism of Jackson’s obsession in this film with constant, unnecessary mortal peril.  Did we really need bumbling Gandalf sliding down slick path, almost into abyss?  Why?  Just make it dark & spooky.  No need for the slapstick.

Side note: Ian McKellen, surprisingly, over-acts a number of lines throughout the film.  But they were of a piece with Peter Jackson’s whole overly-intense approach, so it’s likely PJ’s fault, not Sir Ian’s.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot of really good stuff in the movie.  The spiders were done very well.  The conversation with Smaug is awesome.  Overall, I either liked or loved a lot of the movie’s individual set-pieces, but disliked the pacing, the score, and parts of the dialogue.

Everyone says it’s too long.  Maybe, but if making it 20 minutes longer would have yielded better pacing, I’d have preferred that.  (Or, y’know, cut out the unnecessary Laketown orc fight & the Smaug battle inside Erebor, a.k.a. the Carnival of Suspension of Disbelief.)

And why, Peter Jackson, WHY did you cut away from Bilbo in the middle of the cool “MINE!” scene with the Ring and that giant quasi-spider thing?  That’s another pet peeve: too many cuts between scenes (to manufacture fake suspense?).  Jackson weirdly lacked focus in his filmmaking at times.

Contrary to many critics, I have zero problem with them making three films.  It simply isn’t true that they’re unjustifiably, for no reason other than greed, expanding a tiny children’s book into three films.  What they’re doing is adapting not just the 1937 Hobbit children’s book, but also the broader canon of Tolkien works, written in later decades, tying in that standalone story – which was written before Tolkien conceived of, let alone wrote, The Lord of the Rings – with the War of the Ring and history of the Third Age of Middle-earth.  That’s all well and good.  Using those broader Tolkien source materials, there is plenty of story to tell.  The problem is, they took a lot of filmmaking shortcuts in how they told it; they paced and scored it wrong; and they had weak dialogue in parts.  IMHO, they could’ve made a GREAT movie with these exact plot elements (minus, perhaps, the Laketown and Erebor battles), but better score, pacing and dialogue.  

Bottom line: I disagree with most purist gripes regarding the “Desolation of Smaug."  I liked it as an adaptation.  But on its own merits, as a film, it’s flawed. 

It’s well worth seeing, and it has wonderful, soaringly high moments.  (#Cumberbatch!)  But as a film, it’s way below the genius of (95% of) LOTR.

P.S. Caveat to the "I like it as an adaptation” point: the jury is very much still out on my ultimate opinion of the Dol Guldur stuff.  Despite the obvious huge changes, nothing they’ve done so far regarding Dol Guldur makes me recoil… but I have concerns about how film 3 plays it out.  Somehow, they need to make the 60-year gap between The Hobbit and LOTR, in terms of Sauron’s growing menace, not totally absurd. We’ll see.

Rebecca Bonfanti:  I loved the movie. I thought it did the book great justice.

Me:  I agree with your second sentence more than your first.  I thought it was a good adaptation, but a flawed movie.  Liked, didn’t love.

Brian Cates:  The long CGI sequences started to bore me.

Me:  Yeah, there were 1-2 too many of them, IMHO.  (And I know which 1 or 2: the Laketown orc fight & the Smaug battle inside the mountian.)  Having so many diminishes the impact of each one. 

I expect long CGI action sequences from Peter Jackson, and am not inherently hostile to them, but ya gotta earn them with storytelling.

Brian Cates:  If LOTR triology is a 10, this ‘Hobbit’ trilogy is going to end up being a 6-7 at best.  For the score & the pacing of film.

Me:  Yes.

Brian Cates:  In LOTR, Jackson, Boyens & Walsh were condensing, cropping, making alterations to make a huge epic of 3 novels fit 3 movies.  Even with the alterations, 85% or more of what you ended up with was pure Tolkien. Jackson also had better sense back then.

Me:  Yes.  Particularly re: dialogue. They are not particularly good at writing their own dialogue from scratch.  Never were.  Invariably, the cringe-worthy moments of LOTR (most of which are in Two Towers) are where the dialogue has no Tolkien basis. 

Like @tolkienprof, I have absolutely no problem with drawing on broader source material and making 3 films, but sigh…the script.

Brandon Minich:  I feel he doesn’t have anyone telling him no anymore.  Just glad these aren’t as bad as Star Wars prequels.

Brian Cates:  In LOTR Extended Edition special features, they show several ideas Jackson had that got to filming stage before abandoning them.  Having Arwen show up & fight beside Aragorn at Helms Deep, for instance.  Or Sauron appearing as an angel to Aragorn at the Black Gates.  Back then, the studio/others probably were able to talk Jackson out of his bigger alterations/creations/additions to the story.

Plus, it has to be asked: if just 2 Elves can kill over 200 Orcs singlehanded, why are there any Orcs left?

Me:  Heh. I can suspend disbelief there (also: why does Smaug keep forgetting HE CAN BREATHE FIRE until just before his targets can escape?) … but yes, when huge swaths of a movie consist of that sort of suspension of disbelief, it gets to be a little much.

Matthias Shapiro:  I’m watching it tonight. I’ve gotten myself excited about it, but I still harbor resentment from the last one.

Me:  It’s very enjoyable & better than the first one, but *as a film* (leaving aside separate question of adaptation), it’s still many notches below LOTR.

Brandon Minich:  The healing halo Tauriel was a bit … much.

Me:  Yes.  One of several moments where Jackson visually evoked a moment from LOTR (Arwen with Frodo) and it didn’t work very well.

Michael Blum:  They should have just “borrowed” the score from the Rankin-Bass cartoon.

Me:  I would’ve paid double to hear Legolas sing “Rollin’ Down the Hole."  LOL.

Loyette, 8 others still alive in Bowl Pick ’em

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

With six bowl games left, nine contestants – including my 6-year-old daughter, “Loyette” – are still mathematically alive to win the 9th annual Living Room Times Bowl Pick ‘em Contest, and earn Eternal Glory.

Here are the remaining games:

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma, tonight, 6:30 PM MST
Cotton Bowl: Missouri vs. Oklahoma State, Friday, 5:30 PM MST
Orange Bowl: Ohio State vs. Clemson, Friday, 6:30 PM MST
Compass Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Houston, Saturday, 11:00 AM MST
GoDaddy Bowl: Ball State vs. Arkansas State, Sunday, 7:00 PM MST
BCS Title Game: Florida State vs. Auburn, Monday, 6:30 PM MST

And here are the teams that each of the still-alive LRT Bowl Pick ’em contestants need to win their respective bowl games. (NOTE: These scenarios were manually checked by me, and errors are possible, but I think I’ve got them right.)

Jonathan Bates (wins in 18 scenarios)
(Twitter @iampangean, pick ’em username YUTAKA731)

  • Florida State and
  • Either: a) Ohio State or b) Alabama, Missouri and Vanderbilt

Loyette (14 scenarios)
(My 6-year-old daughter; pick ’em username LOYETTE)

  • Oklahoma and
  • Clemson and
  • Missouri or Vanderbilt or Florida State

Courtney Tawresey (9 scenarios)
(Twitter @ctawresey, pick ’em username CTAWRESEY)

  • Missouri and
  • Auburn and
  • Either:
    • Ohio State and
    • Ball State
  • Or…any 2 of the following 3:
    • Alabama
    • Ohio State
    • Vanderbilt

Jan Gosau (8 scenarios)
(Twitter @J_Mu_G, pick ’em username J_MU_G)

  • Oklahoma State and
  • Houston and
  • Auburn

Dave Roberts (6 scenarios)
(pick ’em username HOYASAXA2001)

  • Oklahoma State and
  • Vanderbilt and
  • Auburn and
  • Alabama or Ohio State

Stephen Peroz (4 scenarios)
(pick ’em username SPEROZ55)

  • Alabama and
  • Clemson and
  • Oklahoma State and
  • Florida State

Casey Zak (2 scenarios)
(Twitter @caseyzak, pick ’em username DARMOKANDJALAD)

  • Alabama and
  • Missouri and
  • Clemson and
  • Houston and
  • Florida State

Chris Palmer (2 scenarios)
(Twitter @chrispalm, pick ’em username CHRISPALM)

  • Alabama and
  • Missouri and
  • Clemson and
  • Houston and
  • Auburn

Russell Caplin (1 scenario)
(Twitter @TriRussC, pick ’em username THE BIG RUSS)

  • Oklahoma and
  • Missouri and
  • Ohio State and
  • Houston and
  • Arkansas State and
  • Auburn

9th annual LRT Bowl Pick ‘em Contest!

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[This post was originally published on The Living Room Tumblr.]

College football’s bowls start Saturday – with local team CSU, alma mater USC, and Becky’s hometown school Buffalo all playing on Day 1 – and that means it’s time for the 9th annual Living Room Times Bowl Pick ‘em Contest!

Sign up now! You know you want to! #peerpressure

Photo Nov 16, 5 17 09 PMAbove: Photo of various school flags in Becky’s and my Denver neighborhood, from my article about “Stapleton’s School Spirit.”

The contest is now underway at OfficeFootballPool.com, which is hosting my Pick ‘em for the fourth straight year.

If you entered my 2010, 2011 or 2012 Bowl Pick ’em contest(s), you can log in with your pre-existing username and password for OfficeFootballPool.com. (Forgot your username and/or password? Retrieve them here.)

If you didn’t enter my 2010, 2011 or 2012 contest(s), click here and you’ll be prompted to create a “Screen Name” – I encourage using Twitter handles as Screen Names (for those who tweet, obviously) – and a Password, and also your E-mail Address, “First Name,” “Last Name,” and (again) “Twitter Handle.”

NOTE: You are not required to put your full, real name in the “First Name” and “Last Name” fields (though it’s encouraged), but please give me some idea of who you are. I just want to avoid another situation where I have no clue who the winner is!

As always, the contest is free to enter. There’s no monetary prize, but the winner gets acclaim, publicity, and – at least here on my Tumblr, and on Twitter – eternal glory!

All picks are due before the New Mexico Bowl kicks off Saturday, December 21 at noon Mountain Time (11am Pacific, 2pm Eastern).

You can log back in & change your picks at any time before the deadline, so there’s no downside to joining early.

You pick the winners of each bowl game “straight up” (NOT against the point spread – the spread is displayed on the pick sheet for informational purposes only). Also, there are no “confidence points,” as in some other Pick ’em contests. Instead, each correct pick is worth a predetermined number of points. A total of 60 points are possible, broken down as follows:

• 4 points: BCS National Championship Game
• 3 points each: All other BCS games
• 2 points each: Las Vegas Bowl (12/21), Pinstripe Bowl (12/28), and all non-BCS bowls from the Music City Bowl (12/30) through the Cotton Bowl (1/3)
• 1 point each: All other bowls

Yes, I made USC and Notre Dame’s games worth more than all the other early bowls. So sue me. 🙂

In the event of a tie in point totals, tiebreakers are as follows:

1. Total # of games picked correctly (regardless of how many points each game is worth)
2. Correct pick of the BCS Championship Game winner
3. Closest to the combined total number of points in BCS Championship Game

So, there you go. Again, sign up here! Have fun! Good luck! Fight on Trojans & Go Irish! 🙂

P.S. If you prefer, you can enter by clicking here and then manually entering the Pool ID (67297) and the Pool Entry Code (kiffin2texas). Tee hee hee.

P.P.S. Speaking of “eternal glory”… here are the past winners:

2005-06: Brian Dupuis
2006-07: Ben Sloniker
2007-08: Seth Carmack
2008-09: Amy Booth
2009-10: Doug Mataconis
2010-11: Randy Styles
2011-12: @Nyghtewynd
2012-13: Ryan Morgan
2013-14: TBD. It could be you! Enter now!